9-16-22 Book promo, Inflation, Polls, Her Majesty, and the Abraham Accords 2nd Anniversary

WTF Happened This Week?

A newsletter from Win the Future Strategies, LLC, on politics, policy & pairings (Food & Drink) Sign up today!

See below for:

1.     what’s going on with us,

2.     the top political stories we’re following,

3.     the top policy and business developments we’re watching (this was a PACKED week!),

4.     the recipe and drink pairing of the week (BOURBON & VANILLA FRENCH TOAST!), and

5.     the “WTF Moment of the Week,” Kanye edition!

Don’t hesitate to contact us with questions, comments, or content suggestions by visiting our website or by emailing us at Victory@wtfstrategies.com.

(1) Top WTF News

We’re continuing to promote our new book, Vignettes & Vino: Dinner Table Stories from the Trump White House with Recipes and Cocktail Pairings

• We spoke to Tim Young on SiriusXM Radio today while Tim guest hosted the David Webb Show. We had a wide-ranging discussion about:  

o   how recipes provided “edible therapy” during stressful times at the White House,

o   Bourbon & Vanilla French Toast,

o   Mark Cuban’s opinions on the Paycheck Protection Program,

o   eating Jimmy John's sandwiches while talking to Jimmy John,

o   spending quality time with Jon Voight,

o   flying with President Trump on Air Force One,

o   White House swag, and

o   the delicious Navy Mess grits

• This adds to our prior coverage by

o   Fox News, which featured our Citrus Sangria,

o   Daily Mail, which discussed several of our stories, including the very short-lived consideration of the Tiger King pardon, and

o   Real America's Voice where we chatted with Ed Henry and Karyn Turk while they were live from Benny’s in Palm Beach.

The book is available for pre-sale in the biggest retailers in America! Order your copy today at one of these fine choices:

Target

Walmart

Amazon

Barnes and Noble

Books A Million

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(2) Top Political News of the Week

Midterm Elections

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer admitted this week at a Capitol Hill restaurant that the Republicans are likely to take the House and claimed that his chances of keeping control of the Senate are about 60%.

Some interesting polling data came out as well:

• Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson leads challenger Mandela Barnes by a point.

• Note, however, that Marquette did this poll, and they were not particularly accurate in 2020, giving Biden a 5-point edge over Trump in Wisconsin when the actual margin was 0.6, well outside the margin of error. So, if they skew towards the Democrats in a similar way this time, it would mean that Johnson may actually be leading by a decent margin in this campaign.

• Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock leads challenger Herschel Walker by 6.
  

• Note: this Quinnipiac poll is, frankly, not credible at all. It's totally out of line with all other recent polls, which give Walker the edge in this race. Moreover, in 2020, Q had Biden leading Trump by 7 points in Georgia when the actual margin was 0.3 points--in other words, not even close. If they skew towards the Democrats in a similar way this time, it means that the other polls showing Walker with a slight lead are probably about in line with reality at this point.

• Nevada challenger Adam Laxalt leads Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by one.

• This poll by Emerson had Biden leading Trump in Nevada by 2 points in 2020, and the margin ended up at 2.4, so they were pretty accurate in that race.

• PA Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s lead over Dr. Oz in the Senate race appears to have narrowed from 5 points to 2 points.

• CBS / Yougov last week had the race at 5 points. In 2020 in Pennsylvania, they predicted a Biden win by 4 to 7 points, but the margin was only 1.2 percent. So, if this poll is similarly skewed towards the Democrats, the margin is likely quite small.

• This week, Trafalgar had the gap at 2 points, and they had a similar gap between Trump and Biden before the election in 2020, where again the margin was 1.2 percent.

Queen Elizabeth II’s Funeral

The “queue” of mourners for Queen Eilzabeth II stretches for miles as world leaders, including President Biden, prepare for her funeral on Monday.

• If you’re in Washington, D.C., you can sign one of several condolence books for the Royal Family at the British Embassy on Massachusetts Avenue NW. Public visitation hours are Monday through Friday, from 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM. More information can be found here.

Immigration

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sent about 50 Venezuelan migrants to Martha’s Vineyard this week, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott sent buses of migrants to Vice President Kamala Harris’ residence.

• The GOP governors’ plans are to bring open borders policies to the doorsteps of progressive leaders who champion them.

(3) Top Policy & Business News of the Week‍

Inflation & Interest Rates

The numbers this week were brutal with 8.3% inflation, even with gas prices falling, and the market promptly dropped by 1200 points.

• The Biden administration and the Fed are rowing in opposite directions, yet claim to be in the same inflation-reducing boat.

o   CNBC analyst Rick Santelli pointed out that one of the reasons for high inflation is excess government spending, and yet, the administration announced:

§  its student loan forgiveness plan worth hundreds of billions of dollars,

§  after supporting and signing the $280 billion CHIPS Act, which was bloated far beyond semiconductor manufacturing incentives by about $230 billion, or about 560% more than the $50 billion or so that was supposed to actually be for chips.

• The Fed will almost certainly hike rates by 0.75% next week, but it's hard to see the tide stemming as long as the government keeps printing money at the most obscene clip in history, while it strangles the supply side of the economy with increased regulatory burdens across multiple industries, including energy, autos, and financial services.

And so the beat goes on--more regulation, more government spending, and more rate hikes will mean higher prices, less consumer spending power, more expensive capital, less capital investment and eventually, fewer jobs and potentially a recession.

• Billionaire Ray Dalio predicts rates hitting at least 4.5%, a major recession, and a 20% market sell-off, and

• Famed economist Mohamed El-Erian expects a turbulent time ahead.

Housing Market

Bloomberg reports that the housing market is experiencing a rapid cooldown worldwide coinciding with interest rate increases.

• Japanese economist Hideaki Hirata warns that rate hikes can take time to fully play out, and while prices are already coming down to an extent, he expects "a globally synchronized housing market downturn in 2023 and 2024."

Crypto Industry News

• Ethereum completed "The Merge" this week, which is supposed to decrease its energy usage by 99%.

• You read that right. This is important because a major criticism of the crypto industry is how much energy is required to operate it. Ethereum is using a "consensus mechanism" to ensure that transactions are valid and keep track of who owns what, rather than the original "proof-of-work" mechanism, which is energy intensive.

• Citadel Securities, Schwab, and Fidelity are launching an upstart crypto exchange called EDX.

• They promise to deliver more efficient, secure, and cost-effective trading of digital assets.

Crypto Regulation & Enforcement

The Biden Administration’s posture toward the crypto industry is growing even more hostile, and that is really saying something!

• The Justice Department announced Digital Asset Coordinators Network of prosecutors to target crypto crime.

• Meanwhile, the Treasury Department released reports today:

o   encouraging the SEC and CFTC to "aggressively pursue" investigations and enforcement actions against illegal activity by crypto companies.

o   Treasury also urges the FTC and CFPB to ramp up enforcement in response to consumer complaints.

o   It also encouraged agencies to use their existing authorities to promulgate new guidance and rules.

o   The administration is also moving further in the direction of a central bank digital currency.

o   The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) also plans to publish a report regarding risks to digital assets.

Dueling hearings took place on Capitol Hill yesterday:

• The Senate Agriculture Committee heard testimony from CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, who would have jurisdiction over crypto spot markets if a bipartisan bill sponsored by Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and John Boozman (R-AR) gets legs.

• Meanwhile, SEC Chair Gary Gensler took heat from Republicans because of his proposed climate disclosure rules, which are highly unlikely to survive legal challenges, and his open hostility to the crypto industry.

Rail Strike Averted

The Biden administration announced it has brokered a tentative agreement to prevent a rail-worker strike that would have caused colossal supply chain problems for the country and worsened inflation.

CFIUS E.O.

The Biden administration announced a sweeping executive order regarding the CFIUS process for reviewing national security risks in connection with foreign investment.

• It appears to be merely formalizing what has already been the expansive view of CFIUS’ authority—especially regarding its consideration of supply chain issues, cyber security, and sensitive personal data.

Abraham Accords Turn Two

Two years ago yesterday, President Trump hosted Israel, UAE, and Bahrain at the White House to sign the historic Abraham Accords.

• As UAE minister of state for foreign trade Thani Al Zevoudi said, "It was a moment that changed the course of history. It signaled not simply the end of 48 years of hostility and distrust but the beginning of a new political and economic era for our region."

We were privileged to attend that ceremony and work daily with architects of the accords like Jared Kushner, Avi Berkowitz, and Robert O'Brien.

Joe Manchin’s Permitting Reform Legislation

Manchin appeared to have cut a deal with Sen. Chuck Schumer to attach permitting reform legislation to a must-pass government funding bill this month, but they’re getting stiff pushback, casting serious doubt on whether it will make it through this congress.

Parallel “Uncancellable” Economy Ramping Up

In the age of cancel culture, more and more businesses are mitigating their political risk.

• Just this week, Parler, a social media enterprise that was taken down after January 6^th, announced that it had restructured, raised capital, and bought a cloud firm to advance an “uncancellable economy.”

• Revere Payments is a payments processing firm that touts its ability to step into the void when companies like Stripe remove clients for political reasons.

o   Revere became the official payments processor of CPAC in February.

• President Trump launched Truth Social to avoid cancellation.

• GETTR pushes back on Twitter and touts itself as a free speech marketplace of ideas.

• Patriot Mobile is an openly conservative wireless provider.

These are just a few examples--this is an active space with many emerging companies to keep an eye on.

(4) Recipe & Drink Pairing of the Week

Bourbon Vanilla French Toast & The John Daddy Cocktail

This is another favorite from Vignettes & Vino!

To EAT: Bourbon & Vanilla French Toast

This decadent version of the breakfast staple is the perfect treat for any special occasion.

Makes 6 slices

1 cup half-and-half

3 eggs

1 Tbsp. bourbon vanilla flavoring (Trader Joe’s carries this; if you don’t have it, mix 3 tsp. vanilla extract with 1 tsp. bourbon)

2 tsp. cinnamon

1 tsp. honey

Butter

6 slices brioche

Whipped cream, maple syrup, strawberries, blueberries (optional as toppings)

Preheat the oven to 375°F. Whisk the half-and-half, eggs, bourbon vanilla flavoring, cinnamon, and honey together in a bowl. Pour into a shallow baking dish. In another baking dish, rub a stick of butter on the sides and bottom to coat.

Heat butter in a nonstick pan over medium heat. Soak each bread slice quickly in the liquid mixture on both sides, then transfer to the pan. Fry for 2 minutes on each side.

Put all slices in the buttered baking dish and bake for 5 minutes.

Carefully remove the French toast from the oven. Top with whipped cream, maple syrup, strawberries, and/or blueberries either individually or on a serving plate.

TO DRINK: The John Daddy

Legendary golfer Arnold Palmer made a famous refreshing beverage that combines iced tea and lemonade. Legendary golfer—and drinker—John Daly made it acceptable to add vodka.

We’ve named this drink the John Daddy to commemorate a hilarious conversation Brian had with John Daly in which he referred to “Daddy Trump.”

3 oz. unsweetened iced tea

3 oz. light lemonade

2 oz. vodka

Sugar or other sweetener (optional)

Pour the ingredients over ice, sweetening if desired.

(5) WTF Moment of the Week

Kanye West is reportedly breaking up with Adidas and Gap, with whom he’s had long-standing, lucrative apparel deals that are/were supposed to stretch until 2026 with Adidas and 2030 with Gap.

• Regarding his popular Yeezy Boost 350 sneakers, he said of Adidas, “They my new baby mamas. I guess we’re just going to have to co-parent those 350s.”

We just have to ask, did we want prenup, we want prenup, yeah? Ye said it’s something that you need to have.

As always, you can reach us by visiting www.winthefuturestrategies.com or by emailing us at Victory@wtfstrategies.com. Have a great week!

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